Can We Turn Off...

When we were kids, if I discuss my case here, around early nineties and growing in North India, as I remember till 2002-2003, there were hardly any seasons of bad Monsoon. It rained, and it rained heavily all those three months or so and weather used to become so cool that you could feel the chill even in a fan running at low speed and when it all stopped; you could see winters knocking on your door.

It was all when, there were hardly any ACs around and why would you need one? The spell of heat waves used to start at late April and would last till mid June, Monsoon was usually on time around June20-25, as is the case in Lucknow but all those two months or so of intense heat waves were so harsh that it all deserted in between 10a.m. and 5 p.m. Almost dozens of dust storms would come from Rajasthan, showering dust all around, usually followed by mild rains.

Those waves commonly called Loo were really intense and any long time exposure, proved to be fatal. These waves still hit the Plaines but really not that long and for the past 8-9 years, I saw them lasting for mere 15-20 days. So sounds good that the summer is not that intense as it used to be, well that’s really not the case.

The extreme dryness of the air was easily exploited to create evaporation-based cooling systems- the Coolers- as an inexpensive form of air conditioning, and have been in common use throughout the plain portions of the northern Indian subcontinent for years. Because evaporation proceeds at a very rapid rate in the extreme dryness, the cooling effect can be quite dramatic. So coolers were the preferred choice for the majority and when the Loo would finally subside around mid June, and the Coolers would fail, the monsoon would have come and its usually good monsoon, not usually weak, as is the case now a days.

So the normal weather pattern kept ACs out of equation, then what happened in between, that made them a necessity- from luxury.

Well climate change, economic boom, industrialization, population, exponential growth of vehicles and income, all joined forces. The spell of extremely hot days is kept on increasing, at the same time the spell of continuous Loo or heat waves is decreasing. The no of actual rainy days have dropped drastically that leaves humid conditions for more than three months. There were consecutive droughts in 2014 and 2015 and below normal monsoon in 2016, infact there is hardly any intense monsoon after 2003-4. Now the clouds come say Hi and say Bye, they don’t have that moisture to rain, thus providing any relief, and you have your answer as well. You say bye, enter your room, sweating profusely, you turn your AC on, now you have the money or most importantly you have the necessity.

Now scientists at IMD are studying the relation between Sun and Monsoon, its known during the summer months the landmass heats up making the air thinner, heavier moist cold air from the Indian Ocean then rushes in to replace the rising warm air, setting in a wind pattern that we understand as the south-west monsoon.

IMD explains that an angry sun or a hot summer is essential for sustaining life in India. In fact, even the logo of IMD in Sanskrit reads ‘Adityat Jayate Vrishti’, meaning that rains come from the sun and that good rainfall in the rainy season was the key to bountiful agriculture and food for the people.

So why has it all stopped? The Monsoon is not that severe and so is the Loo, despite we have more hot days than ever.

It’s all very systematic. Almost two third of the population of the world resides in Asia and of which almost 70% live in India and China. In early eighties economic reforms started in China and Early nineties in India and in many other Asian countries. That led to mass mobilization and rapid industrialization and prosperity. Thousands of new cities were built and existing one grew exponentially; roads, rails, industries and concrete jungles everywhere. The population of the world grew from 4.5 billion to 7 at present.

That led to rapid deforestation of land in Asia; cities, industries, roads and rails came in place of forests, and most importantly forests gave way to agricultural land to feed this huge population. The world forest cover is around 26% at present and has depleted more than 3% in the last 20 years or so. In our country its 20-21%, the previous data is not available. The problem of deforestation is more pertinent in North and North eastern India as compared to coastal South, South- West and South- East India.

Relation of Forests and Monsoon:

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IIT Mumbai’s research found that both forest cover and monsoon rainfall declined considerably between the years 1980-1990 and 2000-2010. The reduction in rainfall was especially pronounced in north and northeast India. The study’s models also showed that the large-scale conversion of forests to crop lands had resulted in a decline in evapotranspiration, a process by which moisture is transferred from soil and plants to the atmosphere.

“When there is a huge conversion of forest to cropland, there is a reduction in leaf area index, moreover in forests, the vegetation is deep-rooted, and can easily extract soil water. But crops have shallow roots and are unable to extract water that easily. So deep rooted forest vegetation tends to have higher evapotranspiration.”

Decline in evapotranspiration in turn reduces recycled precipitation, or rainfall resulting from evapotranspiration. In a previous study, team found that recycled precipitation plays an especially important role in north and northeast India, accounting for around 25 percent of the rainfall during late monsoon (August and September).

“This is because the Himalayas cause monsoonal winds to circulate internally, and the moisture generated by evapotranspiration ends up residing over these two regions, resulting in rainfall,” it said. In contrast, in a region like the Western Ghats in southern India, which has also lost considerable forest cover, the major source of moisture is the Arabian Sea, so evapotranspiration does not play that big a role.

Recent studies have shown that other factors, such as the warming of the Western Indian Ocean, have weakened the Indian monsoon. So if deforestation continues at the present rate, summer monsoon rainfall will reduce further, the researchers warn.

So a lot of study is going on, and other big reasons include global warming caused by large scale emission of CO2, vehicle exhaust, coal based power plants, fertilizers and infinitely others.

Global warming’s one such effect is El- Nino, that is now considered as one of the biggest reasons of weak monsoon rains, caused by rapid heating of Pacific Ocean.

So most of it gained pace since eighties, and now showing its catastrophic effects. We must thank China, due to its single child policy the rate of population growth is almost stopped there otherwise to cater that mass, hundreds of new industries would have come and the scenario would have been much more horrible. Their recent consent for two Childs is what India should adopt, at earliest.

Our lives depend on energy, and our 70% generation is from fossil fuels, coal constitutes almost 60% of total electricity generation, hydro 14%, gas 8%, wind 9% and solar just 3% and that means huge emission of CO2 and since the beginning of industrial revolution we have increased the atmospheric CO2 concentration by 40% (since 1750)from 280ppm to 400ppm at 2015, and it principally comes from combustion of coal, oil and natural gas, fertilizers along with deforestation and others; all to cater this huge unchecked explosion of population. U.S. and Europe have traditionally been the greatest contributors and since economic reforms others have also joined forces or they had to, they had no other choice- they were having so many people and so little resources. We made dams and dried our rivers…

So a lot of systematic damage of eco system has taken place over the last 200-300 years and proceeded exponentially in the last 30-40 years or so and seems going on, and by this rate we won’t have any significant rains in the coming 30-40 years , rising sea levels (2meters rise expected at the end of 2100) will have the ability to wipe out entire cities and over 600 million live in coastal areas within 6-9 meters, a mere 40cm rise in the Bay of Bengal would put 11% of Bangladesh’s coastal land underwater, creating 7-10 million climate refugees, forget about the world.

You won’t have enough drinking water and land to cater millions of displaced soul, and Moon is still as far enough…

So a lot of water under the bridge, coming back to where I have started- good monsoon, fewer ACs – after three pages, seems a fairytale…this is how ACs sale sky rocketed in the last 15 years or so, now the big question is- Can We Turn Off?

Now, turn off what? Everything seems beyond our control, but at the same time it’s very much in control if we just give up a bit…

If we adopt two child policy, the population growth will eventually come to a halt. We have to see a good monsoon in order to tell our grand children, that there was one, and you won’t want them to Google it.

Forget about humid conditions, can we turn our AC off, at least for two summer months? May be a good monsoon won’t let us turn them on again. Can we limit our taste for non-veg (adhering to vegetarian diet would bring down food related emissions by 63%; research by Oxford Martin School). Forget about summer and winters, can we put our wheels to a halt in good Feb- March and Oct-November climate, and use public transport? Forget about government, forget about anything else, and forget about everything else, Can We turn off?

We just have to be a little more content. It would take a long time to restore nature to its very normal but can we start? It’s a long journey and a difficult trek, it may take years to complete but it will, and like any Himalayan trek- will be-incredible…

Yes you can, yes we can…..Lets start….

Har-Har- Mahadev…….